Simulation-based Boundary Crossing Probability, version 1.1
(c) Bahjat Qaqish, 2003

The distribution of all possible outcomes (events/subjects):

    Events   Subjects   Boundary    Probability
         4          4      upper       0.008009
         5          6      upper       0.006707
         6          8      upper       0.005105
         7         10      upper       0.003577
         8         12      upper       0.002602
         9         14      upper       0.001987
        10         16      upper       0.001464
        10         17      upper       0.003457
        11         19      upper       0.001833
        12         21      upper       0.001214
        13         23      upper       0.000873
        13         24      upper       0.002126
        14         26      upper       0.001137
        15         28      upper       0.000784
        15         29      upper       0.001837
        16         31      upper       0.001053
        16         32      upper       0.002131
        17         34      upper       0.001058
        18         36      upper       0.000677
        18         37      upper        0.00169
        19         39      upper        0.00079
         1         40      right       1.2e-005
         2         40      right       7.6e-005
         3         40      right       0.000471
         4         40      right       0.001974
         5         40      right        0.00608
         6         40      right       0.015245
         7         40      right       0.031858
         8         40      right       0.055877
         9         40      right       0.084377
        10         40      right        0.11188
        11         40      right       0.130576
        12         40      right       0.134791
        13         40      right        0.12324
        14         40      right       0.099742
        15         40      right       0.071948
        16         40      right        0.04566
        17         40      right       0.024554
        18         40      right       0.009685
        19         40      right       0.001843

P(event) = 0.3
Maximum sample size = 40
P(Hitting the lower boundary) = 0
P(Hitting the upper boundary) = 0.050111
P(Hitting the right boundary) = 0.949889
E[#events/#subjects] = 0.314168
S[#events/#subjects] = 0.116368
E[#events]     = 11.6331
S[#events]     = 2.88004
E[#subjects]   = 38.7764
S[#subjects]   = 5.83315
E[] denotes the mean, S[] denotes the standard deviation
Program: cp3s
CPU time: 8.939 seconds
Real time: 9 seconds
Date and time: Wed Jun 01 18:45:15 2005