Exact Boundary Crossing Probability, version 1.3
(c) Bahjat Qaqish, 2003

The distribution of all possible outcomes (events/subjects):

    Events   Subjects   Boundary    Probability
         4          4      upper         0.0081
         5          6      upper       0.006804
         6          8      upper     0.00500094
         7         10      upper   0.0036006768
         8         12      upper 0.002599238565
         9         14      upper 0.00189224567532
        10         16      upper 0.00139080057136
        10         17      upper 0.00343907050373
        11         19      upper 0.00185064981482
        12         21      upper 0.0012475740806
        13         23      upper 0.000887644218882
        13         24      upper 0.00216127662938
        14         26      upper 0.00115127049419
        15         28      upper 0.000774024691087
        15         29      upper 0.00183663678101
        16         31      upper 0.000958663623134
        16         32      upper 0.00212659085393
        17         34      upper 0.0010581806002
        18         36      upper 0.000687551067943
        18         37      upper 0.0015972445387
        19         39      upper 0.000816950695521
         0         40      right 6.36680576091e-007
         1         40      right 1.09145241616e-005
         2         40      right 9.12142376359e-005
         3         40      right 0.000495163004309
         4         40      right 0.00196294614521
         5         40      right 0.0060567890287
         6         40      right 0.0151398159029
         7         40      right 0.0315052359507
         8         40      right 0.0556600655363
         9         40      right 0.0847119046147
        10         40      right 0.112305500615
        11         40      right  0.13079104787
        12         40      right 0.134643797141
        13         40      right 0.123034842011
        14         40      right 0.0999661901962
        15         40      right 0.0720714602939
        16         40      right 0.0455670415637
        17         40      right 0.0244372295552
        18         40      right 0.00977704677852
        19         40      right 0.00178993313927

P(event) = 0.3
Maximum sample size = 40
P(Hitting the lower boundary) = 0
P(Hitting the upper boundary) = 0.0499812
P(Hitting the right boundary) = 0.950019
E[#events/#subjects] = 0.314203
S[#events/#subjects] = 0.116483
E[#events]     = 11.6329
S[#events]     = 2.87855
E[#subjects]   = 38.7764
S[#subjects]   = 5.83767
E[] denotes the mean, S[] denotes the standard deviation
Program: cp3
CPU time: 2475.54 seconds
Real time: 2475 seconds
Date and time: Mon Jun 06 19:35:50 2005